Welcome aboard.
Your theory looks ok, I think you would need a huge bankroll to try it out. So when a bad road team went on the road you could back them. I am sure sometimes they could go on a 5 game road trip and lose all 5 so you would have to wait till next time. Also maybe they win 2 in a row on the road which would hurt unless you kept betting them every game.
I checked back a few years and the worst a team did was win 25% of its road games so about 1 in 4 most years looks to be 1 in 3.
I think this would be worth trying but I would add a few more parameters with it, maybe taking them after there first road loss and adding in whatever other matchup factors you can. You could also do some digging which wouldnt be too fun but run the numbers for 2 prior years.
Sounds interesting so let me know
Ryan |