One area where linesmakers have difficulty adjusting, regardless of the sport, is in handling streaks. Hot or cold, over or under – teams get into a rut or a rhythm, and continue to play that way for weeks, even months.
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know a thing about hockey. I’ve never played (heck, I can’t even skate), nor am I a fan. I don’t know the players, the coaches or the arenas, let alone the subtle nuances of the sport. Does that mean I ignore hockey as a betting opportunity? Absolutely not! I bet one thing in hockey – streaks. For example, when John Grahame has tended goal for Tampa Bay, the total has gone over in 12 of the last 13 times. I couldn’t pick Grahame out of a police lineup, but I know that he’s padded my bankroll when he dons the pads for the Lightning, then demonstrates his sieve-like goaltending.
Streak betting is not about identifying why a particular trend is occurring. It’s about winning wagers, riding the same angle, trend or circumstance over and over. That said, a streak with a rational reason behind it can be bet confidently until the season ends or the streak stops winning. In the aforementioned instance, we might hypothesize that the Lightning do not trust their weak goaltender, so they put more pressure on the offensive end and take a more aggressive approach when Grahame is in net.
Totals tend to offer more streaks than side bets, because linesmakers are restricted in their ability to adjust the number. In the Grahame example, Tampa Bay has not been assigned a total higher than seven throughout the 12-game streak. The vast majority of hockey totals are lined between 5.5 and 6.5. There simply isn’t much elasticity within numbers in that range. If the Lightning and their opponents combined to score 10 goals in 10 consecutive games, the next posted total would still not exceed seven.
Totals streaks are not unique to hockey. Last year, in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors went 20-4 against the Over when they played with no rest or their opponent played without rest. Again, we can hypothesize why this trend is occurring. The Warriors defensive intensity simply wasn’t there on the second night of back-to-back games, and Golden State was looking to push the pace at every opportunity against unrested foes of their own. But, why the trend is occurring is less significant than spotting the trend. I cashed for more than 15 units of profit by simply betting the Warriors Over the total in back-to-back situations.
The Dallas Mavericks had a strong streak going until this last week. Head coach Avery Johnson has been preaching defense since his first day on the job. His defensive message doesn’t seem to work all the time, but he captures his team’s collective attention following a loss. The Mavs went under in 12 of the last 13 games following a defeat until their three game losing streak this week. The lone Over came in an overtime game that was Under the total at the end of regulation.
Baseball’s Oakland A’s have been a streaky team every year. In 2005, after a rough start, they went 12-1 prior to the All-Star break. They went on a 16-2 tear starting in late July. It’s worth noting that the A’s cashed as underdogs 10 times during these streaks, as linesmakers were slow to adjust to Oakland’s hot play.
Totals streaks in baseball are even easier to find and profit from. Baseball totals at every ballpark (except for Mile High Coors Field) range from a low of seven and a high of 11.5, with an occasional 6.5 or 12. Even when two hot hitting teams square off using two mediocre starters, the total is not going to be 14. Similarly, when two cold hitting teams send two dominant starters to the mound, the total is not going to be 5. So, it’s very difficult for linesmakers to compensate sufficiently within the limited confines of the standard range of totals. While linesmakers don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at - 300, they don’t seem to make the same adjustments when setting baseball totals.
Betting volume is lighter in late spring and the summer months. Even if you take some time off from betting during this time of the year, waiting for football to arrive in August, there’s absolutely no reason that you can’t continue to build your bankroll slowly and steadily over the summer months by betting on streaks to continue.
Savvy bettors know that you can win only once by betting against a streak, but you can win over and over again when you are betting that a streak will continue, and they often do. |