In Part 1 of this article on beating sides in baseball, I wrote about the concept of avoiding “preconceived notions” about how good or bad teams are expected to be. Obviously, heading into 2006, we know that the Yankees are going to be better than the Royals. But for the vast majority of the teams in baseball their health, their ability to win one run games and their overall team chemistry will determine whether they are a 70 win team or a 90 win team more accurately than any preseason prognostication.
In Part 2 of this article, I wrote about the importance of discounting overall numbers for starting pitchers, concentrating instead on the ‘splits’. Baseball betting lines are set based on starting pitching more than any other factor, so it’s crucial to examine the pitching numbers that really matter and ignore the numbers that don’t. Day/night, home/road and lefty/righty splits are a very good place to start when handicapping any upcoming game.
My baseball sides philosophy is not overly complicated. We’ve examined two concepts, and there’s really only one more key notion worthy of note. That notion can be stated in a single phrase: Don’t overvalue starting pitching, because it’s only one piece of the puzzle.
Handicappers (in my opinion) and the baseball betting marketplace tend to overreact to the quality of the starting pitchers. There were 4860 decisions last year in major league baseball: 30 teams, 162 games apiece. Starting pitchers went 1588-1572 for the year; relievers went 841-857. In other words, games were won and lost by the bullpens just about 35% of the time.
But it goes even deeper than that. Of those 4860 decisions last year, there were exactly 190 complete games thrown in the major leagues. The bullpens get involved more than 96% of the time. For every Chris Carpenter or Dontrelle Willis (tied for the MLB lead in complete games in ’05 with seven), there are literally dozens of starters that aren’t going to see the ninth inning even on their best day.
Baseball lines are set with the highest of emphasis on starting pitching. Just look at the results from the opening week of the season. The Mets were -115 favorites against the Nationals last Wednesday, with Brian Bannister starting against John Patterson. The very next night, New York was -230 with Pedro Martinez against Ramon Ortiz!
Remember, every other player on the field for both sides was the same in the two games. The bullpens behind the starters were the same. The managers and coaches were the same. I’m not going to make the case that there’s no difference between Pedro and Bannister. I am going to make the case that there isn’t $1.15 worth of difference between them on a betting line.
It’s surely worth noting that the Mets lost when Bannister was on the hill because of their bullpen. Bannister left the game with a one run lead, Billy Wagner blew the save opportunity in the ninth, and then Jorge Julio got bombed in the tenth. Pedro Martinez left Thursday’s game with the same one run lead as Bannister had enjoyed the previous night. This time, however, reliever Duaner Sanchez pitched out of trouble and Chad Bradford sealed the deal for a Mets victory.
There are literally dozens of reasons to discount the effect of starting pitching. Riding hot teams and fading cold ones has nothing to do with the starters. Betting on teams with a fresh bullpen or against teams with tired arms in the pen isn’t about the starting pitching either. Looking for good teams to avoid the series sweep is a third. Finding live underdogs that don’t get swept and betting them after a loss in the first game of the series is a fourth. Looking for underdogs with a history of success against their opponent is a fifth. I could go on indefinitely, but I think you get my point.
Here’s a classic example from August of last year. Tampa Bay had Doug Waechter starting at home against the Yankees Randy Johnson. The Devil Rays were in good current form, having won three of their previous four games. Tampa was a classic road/home dichotomy team in ’05, finishing with the second worst record in baseball on the road, but only one game below.500 at home. They had demonstrated success against the Yanks throughout the course of the season, taking seven out of eleven from the Bronx Bombers prior to that ballgame.
Waechter is a horrible starter, getting bombed on a consistent basis, with a 5.41 career ERA. The Big Unit, of course, is a future Hall of Famer. He was in the midst of a dominating 17-8 season. The linesmakers installed New York as -250 favorites, and the money came in on the Yankees.
The starting pitching matchup said that this was supposed to be a one sided ballgame. Everything else about the game said that Tampa Bay had more than a fighting chance to win. Both starters pitched well enough to win, but Tampa’s momentum continued as they got to the Yankees bullpen, and won the game in extra innings.
So, here’s the key phrase once again: “Don’t overvalue starting pitching”. The betting marketplace demands that bettors pay a heavy price to support quality starters. Savvy bettors realize that starting pitching is only one piece of the equation, and the best value often comes from betting against good pitchers when they are installed as heavy favorites against decent competition.
In my next article, we’ll take a good look at betting baseball totals – my bread and butter |