In Part 1 of my ‘Betting Baseball’ article, I wrote about coming into the season with an open mind about the fortunes of the 30 teams in MLB. The concept of ‘no preconceived notions’ can work when we’re talking about teams. It does not work when talking about pitchers. Obviously, Mark Mulder deserves to be favored over Tomo Okha today; Matt Morris over Taylor Buckholz tomorrow.
But starting pitchers routinely get over or under priced based on things that have little to do with their expected performance in the upcoming game – an overall win/loss record; an overall ERA; a long term reputation. As a bettor, we can find great value when we look past the overall numbers and concentrate instead on breaking down pitcher’s ‘splits’.
The splits tell the hidden story behind the overall numbers – how a starter does against a particular team, in a particular stadium, against right handed or left handed lineups. Day/night and road/home splits are probably the first place to start. You can find them right here at Covers.com, on the baseball matchup pages, simply by clicking on the starting pitcher’s name.
Take a hard look at the aforementioned Mark Mulder for a prime example. Mulder finished 2005 with a 16-8 overall record and a solid 3.64 ERA in his 32 starts for the Cardinals – very good numbers. But when you break down those numbers, significant patterns emerge that are extremely relevant for serious bettors.
The most basic split is examining how a pitcher does at home versus how he does on the road. Mulder had a 2.59 ERA in 15 starts at home last year, but a 4.74 ERA in his 17 road starts. He gave up twice as many homers and nearly twice as many earned runs away from Busch Stadium, despite pitching fewer innings. Clearly, savvy bettors looked for opportunities to bet on Mulder and/or the Under at home, while looking to bet against the Cardinals or bet the Over when Mulder was starting on the road.
Mulder also had a significant dichotomy between his daytime and nighttime numbers. In 11 starts in the daylight, Mulder allowed his opponents to hit .350 against him, with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. In 21 nighttime starts, Mulder’s opponents hit .225 against him, with a 2.26 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Those are important numbers to consider before making a wager on or against Mulder, don’t you think?
The value of splits don’t end there. Look at Mulder’s performance against left handed batters vs. right handed batters. Righties hit .289 vs. the Cardinals southpaw, but lefties were completely stymied, hitting only .201 against him. So, when facing a left handed lineup like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mulder and/or the Under might be worth supporting . But when Mulder is facing a primarily right handed lineup like that of the Chicago Cubs, bettors paying attention to the splits should look to go against him and/or bet the Over.
The hard numbers show that theory holds truth. Mulder’s lone start against Arizona in 2005 saw him pitch a complete game shutout, but in three starts against the Cubs, Chicago hit .338 against him and Mulder lost two of those three decisions. |