[jtsneaks]

The infamous phrase ‘Play Ball’ will be heard in ballparks throughout America on Monday, and so starts the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season. With such a lengthy campaign, the age-old phrase, “Steady Eddy wins the race” has never rung more true than it does when betting the bases.

While baseball in general, that is being a fan, handicapper, bettor, and even fantasy league manager, has been a long time personal pastime of mine (and occupation), many people pack up their bankrolls come summer and miss out on a great opportunity to profit during the summer months.

However, as with any sport, if you don’t know what you are doing you can find yourself gone broke quickly. This is even more the case on the bases if you choose to start chasing around heavy favorites on the moneyline.

Here are a few key things for baseball beginners to consider while taking their turn at bat, in hopes of hitting profits on the dusty diamond:

MONEYLINES

Perhaps the most obvious difference between betting baseball, as compared to football, or hoops is that you are required to do so on the moneyline (ML), as opposed to beating spreads (ATS). Basically you are simply picking the winner and the price you pay is adjusted depending upon who is the favorite, or underdog.

This can be a dangerous proposition for a baseball beginner who is prone to playing big favorites. Keep in mind that with every –300 favorite you lose, you must win three to get back to even. With that said you could also put a huge strain on your bankroll if you take the polar opposite approach, and continually try to land the big underdogs.

A safer route for the beginner would be to stick to playing small favorites, small underdogs, and totals. If you stay between the ‘140’s, you shouldn’t stray too far off the beaten path assuming you’re winning a fair percentage.

If the situation arises that you feel you must play the bigger odds, perhaps try doing so on the runline to minimize potential disaster.

RUNLINES

To keep it simple, by playing the runline you are basically creating a line of 1 ½-runs on the game and you then choose whether you wish to ‘take’ or ‘give’ the 1 ½-run spread.

For example if you wanted to wager on the Yankees as a –250 favorite, but were a little hesitant to pay the big price, you could bet New York on the runline. To win your bet, the Yankees would have to win by two runs. The –250 moneyline price would most likely look more like –150 on the runline.

Of course more than 20-percent of MLB games end in a one run differential, so you must weigh that factor before running around playing the RL on every game.

Also keep in mind that as you can lay the 1 ½-runs for the favorite, you can also take them and play the underdog. To win this bet the underdog must either win, or lose by a run to cover the runline. However, in this case you are asked to pay a higher price for the cushion and in many cases there isn’t much value to be found.

REDUCED JUICE

When wagering on any sport, besides winning, money management and shopping for value remains the single most important factor. It takes discipline and is one area where many people falter. Remember a baseball season could see you make upwards of 200-300 wagers, and with that size of a sample you can get ‘juiced’ quite easily.

With all of the online books available there is no reason that you should be playing a 20-cent baseball line. Check out the recommended sportsbooks at both Covers Experts and Torreysports to ensure you are getting the best bang for your buck.

Always have multiple outs to ensure the best line, or price, and take advantage of weekly specials (such as half-priced juice) that these books offer. Your pocketbook will thank you for it in the end.

SIDES

There’s a age old baseball handicapping philosophy that reminds us that even if a team has a spectacular season and wins 100 games, they would still lose 62 games. That means even the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals of the MLB circuit will lose an estimated 38–percent of their games, despite being asked to eat chalk on consistent bases.

Now that doesn’t mean that you go ahead and fade the Yankees each time they take the field, but it does mean that in most cases there’s not much value in playing the fan favorites. Not to mention that these top teams are quite capable of producing long win streaks.

Getting back on track, in addition to the money-management side of baseball you do have to pick some winners. Remember that in no other sport (or none we know of..) does one single player have as much effect on the outcome of a game than a starting pitcher. With that in mind, it’s the obvious place to start when handicapping your games.

Also consider that baseball is played series by series, so you want to know where the series stands when doing your research. For example, is one team down 0-3 in a four game set? It can also be collectively very streaky, with entire lineups riding good and bat hitting streaks as a unit.

TOTALS

Of course there’s more to baseball then just picking which team is going to win. Betting totals can prove to be both entertaining (although sometimes watching under bets can be as painful as pulling teeth) as well as profitable.

In addition, in most cases you can bet totals at –110 or even cheaper if you shop. If nothing else, that fact alone should be proof enough that baseball totals should not be overlooked.

In many instances you may have a very good feel for how a game is going to play out, without necessarily knowing who’s going to wind up the victor.

BALLPARKS

Without spending too much time on ballparks, you should at least be aware of the different MLB venues and the general characteristics of each. For example the ball travels very well at Rogers Center in Toronto, and of course Coors Field in Colorado has been a launching pad for years now.

Obviously the oddsmakers are aware of these trends, and in most cases make the proper adjustments. However, if you are not personally aware you could wind up at a considerable disadvantage.

In most cases if you’re a baseball fan, you have a pretty good idea about the characteristics of these different parks. If that’s the case do not spend to much time here. Do take a few minutes to check the weather.

BULLPENS

Bullpens are perhaps the most commonly overlooked variable in baseball handicapping. How many times have you seen your bet go sour the minute the manager made that dreaded call?

It’s going to happen, and relievers are going to blow chances no occasion. It’s frustrating for sure, but it’s also part of the game. The point we are trying to make is do not overlook these guys. Check for performance and recent workload.

Keep the basics that were covered in both parts of this article and you will stand a better chance of coming out ahead this baseball season. Batter up!
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