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Old 03-21-2006, 07:38 PM   #13 (permalink)
boyd
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2* New Orleans +3.5


7:05p Ken Jenkins
New Jersey Devils
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Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***Miami (-4 ½) 104 MINNESOTA 91
05:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 609
Minnesota is coming off an upset home win over the Kings, but the Timberwolves have had a tough time playing well in consecutive games recently (just 1-9-1 ATS following their last 11 spread wins) and Miami is 35-14-3 ATS in their last 52 games when rested and facing a losing team (16-2-2 ATS against a losing team off a win). Miami also applies to a 46-10-1 ATS road momentum situation while Minnesota applies to a negative 103-189-8 ATS home underdog letdown situation. Minnesota was 0.5 points better than an average team before trading away Wally Szczerbiak for Ricky Davis (who makes every team worse), but the Timberwolves are 2.9 points worse than average in 26 games with their current roster and my ratings favor Miami by 6 points in this game. I’ll take the Heat in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars at -5 ½ or -6 points.

3 Star Selection
***SACRAMENTO (-9) 112 Seattle 95
07:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 618
The Kings have been 6.0 points better than an average team since Ron Artest joined the team and their back-to-back road losses at Indiana and Minnesota will have them motivated tonight against a poor traveling Sonics team that is just 11-21 ATS on the road this season. Sacramento is a perfect 10-0 ATS at home with Artest and the Kings have a long history of success at home following a loss, especially against mediocre and bad teams. Sacramento is 40-6-2 ATS in their last 48 home games laying less than 14 points after a loss when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .570. The Kings have won 7 of 10 home games with Artest by 10 points or more while Seattle has lost 18 of 32 road games by double-digit margins, so it’s pretty likely the Sonics will lose this game by 10 points or more given that the Kings are 6 points better than the average team they’ve faced on the road this year. My ratings favor Sacramento by 13 points and I’ll take Sacramento in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points. Seattle applies to a solid 107- 48-8 ATS big underdog situation at +10 ½ points or more, so I’ll only play the Kings at -10 or less.

Last edited by boyd : 03-21-2006 at 07:45 PM.
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