The Hazzards and Pitfalls Of Sports Pick Consensus
So far the consensus report has covered many angles about the way it is used in sports betting. It uncovered where to find the best numbers and how to read them. The articles have dissected the numbers and showed the best ways to approach them when handicapping for a game and the best way to try and make a profit. All of the previous articles to this one showed things to avoid when looking at the consensus but it is important to realize that if not used properly consensus can actually hurt and cost you money more than help you as a sports bettor. That is the reason for the latest installment of the real consensus report: the truth behind the numbers. In this edition of the report all of the hazards and pitfalls will be placed in one article to help the sports handicapper avoid them and in turn use the consensus for good and making money. There is more than one pitfall to avoid so let’s get started.
The first and one of the most important pitfalls to try and avoid is falling in love with the number. The consensus report displays what amount of people are on a certain side or a total. Since the most popular theory is that the smart handicapper wants to be on the opposite side of this number many bettors fall in love with the number. In other words they say that 70% of the assumed public is on a play and they automatically wager against it. Remember the consensus report can be a successful handicapping tool but should never be used as a stand alone tool. When the handicapper applies more emphasis to one tool as opposed to another they will skew the numbers and can often be blinded by one result and pick the wrong side. This will always cause trouble and will often lose the handicapper money which is why this is the most important pitfall to avoid but it is not the only one.
Another pitfall to avoid when using the consensus is not acknowledging where the information comes from. Different web sites offer a consensus and you have to make sure that the information that you are given is legitimate. Since a consensus is based off of actual money wagered, it is essential to know that the information you are using is from a site that is calculating wagers and has the biggest volume. The best consensus will also include a large sample size. If the consensus site is a small forum or they just use people that come to their site they may not be as precise as some of the bigger contest betting sites that offer percentages and numbers. The key is to know the data that you are using and where it is coming from.
Another pitfall is realizing that consensus reports will be used differently for different sports. In the upcoming follow-up articles we will discuss how each sports uses the consensus reports and how some may not even use them at all. Since the upcoming articles will cover them we will not go into detail here but it is important to realize that they are a pitfall.
Overall the consensus numbers should not be approached any differently than any other handicapping tool like trends. Read them for what they are, don’t read too much into them and understand that for different sports they are applied differently. With these pitfalls acknowledged the sports bettor can see the pitfalls before they encounter them, avoid them and make a profit using the consensus reports.
In the next article it is time to start breaking down sports individually and comparing them to the consensus report and seeing how they apply. As mentioned with each report that sport is applied differently. There may be some interesting facts about each sport that the sports bettor has never realized. Without knowing these facts the sports bettor could get into trouble while trying to handicap all sports in the same manner. That is why the next set or articles is a must read!