4* Monday Night Football SMASH (ESPN) on Falcons -3

Denver vs. Atlanta, 09/17/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 21 - 27

Point Spread: -3/-110 Atlanta

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Win

4* Monday Night Football SMASH (ESPN) on Falcons -3

Peyton Manning looked better than I expected in his Denver debut, but he was at home and matched up against a Pittsburgh defense that was missing some key players. Rest assured, he'll have a much tougher time in Atlanta tonight.

The Falcons haven't finished worst than 6-2 at home in any of the past four seasons, and they have especially been deadly at home early in the season. Under coach Smith, they are 10-2 ATS in home games in the first half of the season and have won these by an average score of 28.2 to 18.5. Zooming in, we find that Atlanta has never lost ATS at home under Smith in the month of September. It is a perfect 6-0 ATS in these games and has won them by an average score of 32.5 to 16.7.

Denver was able to come back from a 19-14 deficit in the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh, but I don't see Atlanta rolling over as easily. It has a lot more fire power. QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez make up arguably the best group of skill players on one team in the NFL.

Denver has a good pass rush, but the Falcons have the running game to keep the Broncos honest. I'm laying the points.