4* Liberty Bowl SMASH

Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt, 12/31/2011 15:30 EDT, Score: 31 - 24

Point Spread: -1½/-105 Vanderbilt

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

4* Liberty Bowl SMASH (ABC) on Vanderbilt -1.5
Cincinnati has benefited from playing in the weakest BCS conference. Starting QB Zach Collaros is expected back after suffering a broken ankle last month, but I don't expect him to be himself. He just recently returned to full practices and faces the steep challenge of trying to move the football on a very good Vandy defense.

The Commodores tied for 19th in the FBS with 324.6 yards allowed per game. They ranked 27th in scoring defense with 20.8 points allowed per contest. Those numbers are even more impressive when considering the tough SEC slate Vandy was asked to navigate.

Vandy finished the season 6-6, but 4 of its defeats came by 6 points or less to Georgia, Arkansas, Florida and Tennessee.

The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, and I don't see this trend coming to an end against an undervalued team from a better league.