Free Saturday Play from Tony George Sports
Southern Miss vs. Houston,
12/03/2011 12:00 EDT,
Score: 49 - 28
Point Spread: -14/-115 Houston
Championship Saturday 3 Pack of NCAA Conference Championship Games. ACC Top Play, 2 Dimer headlines this card with SEC Championship and the Bedlam Series Game with Oklahoma and Okie State. A Power Packed card with 4 units up for grabs, I say get out the broom and SWEEP it. Top 2 star plays 68% ATS on the season, and I am over 61% ATS again this year with Big 12 Plays, none bigger than this. Solid takes and positions on every game, BANK IT.
No other way to look here. With the secondary of the Tigers rivaling that of many NFL teams, and the balanced attack they have on offense which can kill you in many ways, I see them here in a blowout. Look what they did to Arkansas last week, and the Razorbacks vaunted passing game. While Georgia is on a nice run, they played in a far weak division of the SEC, and really beat no one, including having to switch gears after working up their defense to stop the option attack of Georgia Tech last week and now attacking a 3 pronged offense attack of the Tigers here, that is allot to ask. QB Murray will struggle here against LSU, the best team in the country who just hammered a higher ranked opponent last week by more than this spread and a better team that Georgia. LSU the real deal and I doubt they are thinking past this game in any form with a national title at stake.
Play 1 Unit on LSU, they win by 20
Virginia Tech -7
DEFENSE wins this one. Clemson has fallen from grace. There last 3 road games they lost in blowout fashion getting outscored away from home by a 102-43 margin. WOW. Their only win in the last month was at home to Wake by 3 points in a last minute thriller. VT coming off a complete and total ass kicking of a good Virginia team 38-0, and with a veteran coach, a great defense, and team speed to match Clemson here, they avenge a 23-3 beat down in Blacksburg earlier REVENGE is a huge factor here. Clemson limps in here off a 21 point beating at South Carolina on rivalry weekend. Tough nut here for the Tigers against a Veteran coach who knows how to win big games, and bet your butt D Coordinator Bud Foster will not let Clemson run ram shod all over them like the last game. VT the real deal and an outside long shot if it goes haywire today for Okie State and LSU (doubtful) a BCS title game. L:ast 3 games, Clemson allowing 33 ppg and scoring 19. Virginia Tech puts up 35 they win by 14 easy, I think they will.
PLAY 2 Units on VT – Top Play
Oklahoma State -3.5
I have flip flopped on this for a week, but looking at it from clearly a perspective of the advantage of home field and the fact Oklahoma has won 8 straight, and covered 6 of those, I like Okie State here. This is no doubt a chance for the BCS title game with some help for OSU who slipped badly and got beat by Iowa State. OU not having a full complement at RB and with Broyles out at WR is hampering them to put mega points up as evidenced by struggles last week with Iowa State and the loss at Baylor. Okie State is flat out a juggernaut on offense and while they will allow OU to score here at day’s end they are due in this series huge, are well rested in this one and are at home, which is worth 4 points alone in this game. Not defense in a big game for once, but flat out one of the better offense’s that can score from anywhere quickly wins it, and that is the Cowboys.
Play 1 Unit on Okie State
Saturday Big 12 feature, Double Header. I go with what I know well, and close out the Big 12 season HUGE on Saturday. At 61% ATS on the year with my Big 12 Plays, I have the Kansas State / Iowa State Game as a featured premium and the Texas / Baylor game as a Bonus Play for a 1.5 Unit Card out of my Specialty Conference and close out the year strong!
Kansas State -10.5
One thing about Kansas State is consistency. That pure and simple is a product of Bill Snyder. Yes ISU went on the road and blew out Texas Tech, of course Tech was coming off an upset of then #1 Oklahoma. ISU also caught Okie State sleeping at the wheel, and we all know Okie State plays little defense. At day’s end COACHING is a huge deal in games like this and K State has a major bowl game hanging in the balance and they also have covered 9 out of their last 10 games and are a tough home field team in little Manhattan always. Also a senior day and I simply think Kansas St. is so well coached that they will not take this game lightly and the fact ISU has beaten ranked teams will have Bill Snyder’s full attention. Iowa State’s offense is in flux and have only scored 18 ppg their last 3 games and they are very thin at RB due to injury.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas State. 31-14 is my guestimate here.
BONUS PLAY – Play a half unit on BAYLOR -2.5. If Texas AM did not give it away 4 times last week, Texas would have got beat by 10. While I had them n that one, this is a back to back road trip, and Bryles a better coach than Mac Brown, trust me and RG III one of the best QB’s in the country and the best player in this game, and at home.
Houston -13 vs So. Miss
A ton riding on this one for the UNDEFEATED Cougars and all world QB Case Keenum. Undefeated record and a big BCS Bowl Bid. One BIG thing here, is home field advantage which is rare in Conference Championships. Only the PAC 12 has it this year. While Southern Miss has some solid numbers for an underdog, their secondary is VERY suspect and at days end the record seting QB Keenum and the fast paced offense will simply overwhelm Southern Miss as the game goes into the late stages and I see Houston pulling away.
What some do not realize is Houston's defense is good. They rank 3rd in the nation in tackles for a loss, and they are also a ball hawking secondary. I was looking at the dog here about a week ago, but I re-watched the butt kicking Houston handed Tulsa, at Tulsa, a game in which I took Houston, tyhere is no doubt they are the real deal and So. Miss is a paper tiger here. AT HOME, Houston Rolls
Houston 48 So. Miss 24 - Lay the wood.