5* MLB *PRIME TIME BAILOUT*
NY Yankees vs. Boston,
07/08/2012 20:05 EDT,
Score: 7 - 3
Money Line: +110 NY Yankees
Don't be surprised if New York comes out and knocks around Jon Lester tonight. Lester has been ineffective at home this season. So far he's started nine times at Fenway and posted an ERA there of 5.60 and a WHIP of 1.50. As a result, the Red Sox are just 3-6 in his home starts and this is a team that has struggled as a whole to win in Boston.
The BoSox are a disappointing 22-23 at Fenway this season, despite scoring 5.6 runs per game and hitting .288 as a team.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are one of the top teams in the league away from home, posting a 26-17 mark as the visitor so far this season. One of the reasons for that success has been young starter Ivan Nova, who is 6-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine road starts this year. In fact, the Yankee pitching staff as a whole has been solid on the road. Opposing teams are averaging just 4.2 runs per game against them, where the Yankees are averaging 5.0 runs in those games. It's also worth noting that New York's lineup is built to hit left-handed pitching (like Lester). The Bronx Bombers are hitting .247 as a team against lefties and averaging 5.5 runs per game against them - both numbers well above their average season marks.
While I do expect the Red Sox to rebound and have a good second half this season, in this situation the Yankees are the right play at the right price.