5* MLB Bailout Game of the Month
Cincinnati vs. San Diego,
07/05/2012 22:05 EDT,
Score: 1 - 2
Money Line: -131 Cincinnati
5* MLB Bailout Game of the Month on Reds -131
San Diego is coming off a big upset win over the D-backs, but it is 0-11 since the beginning of last season in home games following an upset win over a division rival. It has lost by an average score of 5.5 to 2.3 in this situation.
Also, plays against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 in July games with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start are 95-29 the last 5 seasons. This system is already a perfect 5-0 this season.
The Reds are 6-0 in Latos' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record while the Padres are 0-4 in Volquez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are also 5-0 in Latos' last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Latos will feel right at home in pitcher-friendly Petco tonight where he had a lot of success as a member of the Padres. Plus, Latos has benefited from 5.90 runs of support per nine innings, which ranks among the highest in baseball. Volquez, meanwhile, has the majors' second-lowest run support average at 2.69. Volquez also leads the majors with 60 walks.
There's a reason the Reds paid a hefty price to get Latos. I believe he proves to be worth the money by outdueling Volquez here.