3* Big Ten SMASH

Indiana vs. Michigan State, 12/28/2011 19:30 EDT, Score: 65 - 80

Point Spread: -5½/-110 Michigan State

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Win

3* Big Ten SMASH on Michigan State -5.5
Indiana has dropped 16 in a row in East Lansing, and will have a difficult time ending this skid without starting guard Verdell Jones III, who is expected to miss with a hip injury.

Odds makers clearly want the money coming in on the undefeated Hoosiers with this line, but we won't oblige them. Consider that plays against an underdog that has successfully covered the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, are 29-8 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 8.6 points. It's also worth noting that this situation is 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big Ten. The home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Michigan St. Take Sparty.