5* NBA Finals *BEST BET*
Oklahoma City vs. Miami,
06/17/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 85 - 91
Point Spread: -4/-110 Miami
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points.
After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City.
Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again.
Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home.
The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points.