5* LITTLE CAESARS BOWL TOP PLAY

Western Michigan vs. Purdue, 12/27/2011 16:30 EDT, Score: 32 - 37

Point Spread: +2/-105 Western Michigan

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

I think these two teams are pretty well evenly matched, but I actually give the slight edge to Western Michigan, which makes taking the 2-points an easy decision

Western Michigan's starting quarterback Alex Carder is the real deal, who is better than a few Big 10 quarterbacks. Carder completed 67% of his attempts for 3,434 yards with 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. The Broncos also have a gifted receiver in Jordan White, who had 127 receptions for 1,646 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Boilermakers defense finished 35th against the pass, but that number is a bit skewed by playing in the run-happy Big Ten.

Defensively Western Michigan isn't all that great, especially against the run. They finished 10sth in the nation, allowing 215.9 rushing yards per game. I expect Purdue to have success running the ball, but they are without their leading rusher Ralph Bolden.

Western Michigan allowed Illinois to run for 296 yards, but still only lost the game 20-23 on the road. Not to mention they could have won that game had they not missed two field goals.

Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. BET THE BRONCOS +2!