5* NBA *BEST BET*

Boston vs. Miami, 06/05/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 94 - 90

Point Spread: -7½/-108 Miami

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7.5
The Heat blew an opportunity to take complete control of the series with an overtime loss in Game 4. They now enter Game 5 with a greater sense of urgency, and I expect them to roll to comfortable win.

Boston has won 2 in a row and 2 of the last 3 games have gone to overtime and Miami is laying this many points? It's clear the books want the money on Boston tonight and they're getting it.

Whether or not Chris Bosh returns to action, I really like Miami here. Consider that the Heat have won at home versus Boston by 8 points or more in 6 of the last 8 meetings. Those 6 wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

In addition, Miami is 12-4 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It has won by an average score of 97.9 to 88.6 in this situation. It is also 15-5 ATS in home games after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. It has won by an average score of 103.5 to 86.5 in this situation. The Heat are even 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.

Just when it looked like Miami might be losing its grip in the Eastern Conference semis, it kicked it in high gear versus the Pacers. I expect a similar response tonight.