3* Little Caesars Bowl *BEST BET*

Western Michigan vs. Purdue, 12/27/2011 16:30 EDT, Score: 32 - 37

Point Spread: +3/-110 Western Michigan

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Loss

3* Little Caesars Bowl *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Western Michigan +3

Defense has been an issue for Purdue this season, and I expect it to be its downfall as it goes up against an explosive Western Michigan offense averaging 456.2 yards and 35.6 points per game.

The Boilermakers will especially have their hands full with All-American receiver Jordan White, who leads the nation with 127 receptions for 1,646 yards. The senior has 16 touchdown catches, including nine over the last four games while averaging 163.5 yards.

While I expect the Western Michigan offense to hum, the Purdue offense figures to struggle as it is missing some key pieces. The Boilers will miss RB Ralph Bolden, who led the team with 674 rushing yards and six TDs and was instrumental in helping them win two of their last three to become bowl eligible. He rushed for 205 yards and three touchdowns over the final three games but is likely to miss this contest after injuring his knee.

Purdue will also miss WR O.J. Ross, who was suspended indefinitely for violating team policy and rules.

There are plenty of trends going against the Boilermakers as well. They are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf. They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. MAC teams. We'll take the points.