North Carolina vs. Missouri,
12/26/2011 17:00 EDT,
Score: 24 - 41
Point Spread: +5/-110 North Carolina
This is probably a disappointing Bowl for both teams that thought their seasons had much greater potential. But, both finished with identical 7-5 records. The Tigers offense struggled down the stretch where they scored just 24 points per game in their last three. Two of those games were against Texas Tech and Kansas.
The Tar Heels lost three of their last five, but two of them were to Virginia Tech and Clemson. Their defense was strong down the stretch allowing just 20.5 ppg, and with a struggling Missouri offense, the points look like the valued side here. The Tar Heels have been a very good choice as a dog where they are now 19-9 ATS in their last 28.
Missouri has laid a goose egg (0-7 ATS) vs teams that can pass the ball and NC can pass and have a very good defense. I like NC plus the points here.