15* NL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Atlanta Braves -108

Atlanta vs. Cincinnati, 05/23/2012 19:10 EDT, Score: 1 - 2

Money Line: -108 Atlanta

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

After losing the first two games of this series, it's safe to say that the Atlanta Braves are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. Atlanta has the better starter on the mound in Tommy Hanson over Bronson Arroyo, making this selection a no-brainer.

Hanson is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA through nine starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA in six starts away from home. He has 46 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings on the season. He is red hot of late, going 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 18 innings.

Arroyo has been a below-average starter in this league for years. He is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA through eight starts thus far in 2012, but he's coming off a 2011 campaign in which he went 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA. Arroyo is 0-1 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.881 WHIP in four home starts this season, and he has posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 14 career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 7-0 in road games with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. The Reds are 0-6 in Arroyos last 6 starts as a home underdog. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing Atlanta. Take the Braves Wednesday.