5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET*
Denver vs. LA Lakers,
05/12/2012 22:30 EDT,
Score: 87 - 96
Point Spread: -5½/-104 LA Lakers
5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -5.5
The odds are in our favor here considering only 8 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Plus, Kobe Bryant is 4-1 all-time in Game 7's. He'll be ready to go, and I expect his teammates will as well after he called them out following Thursday's loss. The Lakers should also get a lift on the defensive end from Metta World Peace, who has served his suspension.
The Lakers are 28-8 at home on the season and have won 31 of their last 37 at home versus Denver.
Historically speaking, LA's double-digit loss in Game 6 bodes well for us here for a number of reasons. First off, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points.
Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, provided they are a good team (60-75% winning percentage) and matched up against a team with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.
In addition, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 season.
Lastly, the Lakers are 21-8 ATS in their last 28 games when tied in a playoff series since 1996. They've won these games by an average of 6.9 points. Take the Lakers.