4* MLB SMASH
Toronto vs. Minnesota,
05/10/2012 20:10 EDT,
Score: 6 - 2
Money Line: -140 Toronto
4* MLB SMASH on Blue Jays -140
The Blue Jays have had Minnesota's number, and I expect their dominance over the Twins to continue given the advantage they have on the mound.
First off, the Blue Jays are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in this series. They are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games in Minnesota and 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in the Twin Cities. It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and 4-0 in their last 4 vs. AL Central foes.
Toronto's Henderson Alvarez is carrying an ERA of 2.83 on the season, and it lowers to just 1.12 on the road. His 1.040 WHIP is also key because the Twins are 4-17 in their last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Minnesota's Jason Marquis is carrying an ERA of 5.40, and it elevates to 5.84 at home.
The Twins have been excellent fade material at 13-42 in their last 55 overall. They are 13-43 in their last 56 vs. the AL East and 12-40 in their last 52 games as an underdog. We'll take Toronto.