4* NFL WINNER

Cleveland vs. Baltimore, 12/24/2011 13:00 EDT, Score: 14 - 20

Point Spread: -12/-107 Baltimore

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The Ravens and Browns already played once this season, with Baltimore winning 24-10 at Cleveland. Not only do I think the Ravens will again cover a double-digit spread, but I think this game could get ugly.

Baltimore got embarrassed 14-34 by the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Backing the Ravens after a bad loss has been extremely profitable over the years. The Ravens are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points and a perfect 9-0 ATS after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

If the Ravens didn't have enough motivation after the way they played last week, the fact that they can secure the division with two more wins (win and Steelers loss) should do the trick.

Cleveland isn't expected to have starting quarterback Colt McCoy back for this game, which means Seneca Wallace will have to start a second straight game. Wallace completed just 18 of 31 attempts for 226 yards against a bad Arizona secondary. Look for Wallace to have a much harder time against the Ravens defense, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Baltimore didn't score a defensive touchdown in this game.

As much as the Browns want to show up against their division rivals, I have a hard time believing Cleveland wants any part of Baltimore this week.

Baltimore is also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, while the Browns are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. BET THE RAVENS -12!