20* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11.5

Utah vs. San Antonio, 05/02/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 83 - 114

Point Spread: +11½/-108 Utah

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

After losing by 15 points to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, I have the Utah Jazz putting up a much better fight in Game 2. This is a team that heads into the playoffs red-hot, and they're not about to let one bad performance slow them down.

Remember, Utah won five straight games heading into the postseason. That includes three victories over playoff contenders, including their all-important 100-88 win over Phoenix. This is a team that believes they can win when few outside their locker room think they can.

The Spurs are simply overvalued in this spot. San Antonio has only beaten Utah three times in their last 14 meetings by more than 10 points. Utah is simply a better team than they get credit for, while the Spurs are getting too much respect with their No. 1 seed.

This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.