15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +164
Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta,
04/30/2012 19:10 EDT,
Score: 9 - 3
Money Line: +164 Pittsburgh
This is an excellent price to back the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Pittsburgh sends underrated hurler James McDonald to the mound in a match-up with Mike Minor that is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.
In fact, you could argue that McDonald is the better starter. The righty has posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.015 WHIP through four starts while allowing just seven earned runs and 23 base runners over 22 2/3 innings. Minor sports a 3.42 ERA and 0.987 WHIP through four starts.
McDonald is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have occurred over the last two seasons. He has given up just two earned runs and 23 base runners while striking out 18 over 18 1/3 innings in his career against the Braves.
Pittsburgh is 18-10 (+16.2 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 17-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games. The Pirates are 4-0 in McDonald's last 4 Monday starts. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the underdog Pirates. Roll with Pittsburgh Monday.