5* NBA *BEST BET*

LA Clippers vs. Memphis, 04/29/2012 21:30 EDT, Score: 99 - 98

Point Spread: -5½/-107 Memphis

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Memphis has the edge at home, where it is 26-7 with a 6.4-point average margin of victory. The Grizzlies were almost unbeatable at home in last year's playoffs, going 5-1 with those 5 wins coming by an average of 9.8 points.

The Grizzlies enter the playoffs having won 11 in a row at home with those wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. This run is significant because plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in April games, are 44-14 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have won by an average of 10.6.

The Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They aren't nearly as good on the road and lost their lone regular season meeting in Memphis by 9 points. Take the Grizzlies.