5* SNF *BEST BET* (NBC)

Chicago vs. Green Bay, 12/25/2011 20:20 EDT, Score: 21 - 35

Point Spread: +14/-130 Chicago

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Push

5* SNF *BEST BET* (NBC) on Bears +14
Regardless of what happens Saturday, I expect a very inspired effort from the Bears Sunday night. Green Bay, meanwhile, can take its foot off the gas pedal and start to rest players now that a perfect season is unattainable.

Consider that plays against home favorites of 10.5 points or more that are matched up against a division foe, provided the "play against" side is coming off an upset loss on the road, are 34-10 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 13 points but have only won by an average of 8.2. It's also worth noting that this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

Each of the last 7 games in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. Josh McCown has a whole lot more experience in the NFL than Hanie, and I'm confident he'll be able to do a better job of taking care of the football for the Bears. If he does, Chicago should pick up an easy cover.