Joe D'Amico's MLB Value Play of the Month

Boston vs. Minnesota, 04/23/2012 20:10 EDT, Score: 6 - 5

Money Line: +143 Minnesota

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

Today's winner is Minnesota over Boston. This is my MLB Value Play of the Month.

Getting +145 on Minnesota against this Boston team is a gift. The Red Sox have dropped 5 straight, being outscored 46-17 in that span. Boston hits the road where they are just 1-5 as a visitor this season. They rank 30th in ERA, allowing a whopping 6.68 RPG. Jon Lester gets the start today. The LH is 0-2 with a 5.62 ERA on the season. He has struggled against Minnesota in his career, with a 4.95 ERA on a 1-3 record vs. the Twins. But when pitching at Target Field, Lester is 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA. Boston's injury report is ridiculous. Just in their position players, LF's Kalish, Crawford, and Repko are all out. CF, Ellsbury is out. And 3B, Youkilis left Saturday's game and is listed today as questionable tonight. Minnesota begins a 6 game home stand. The Twinkies are in the top 10 in baseball in team batting average, boasting a .257 BA as a unit. Josh Willingham has 5 HRs while both he and Denard Span lead the team with a .328 BA. Throw in Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit's combined 17 RBI's, and Minny's lineup can rattle opposing pitchers. Jason Marquis takes the mound here. The RH is 1-0 on the season and has had successe when facing the Red Sox in his career. Marquis has appeared in 4 games, including two starts vs. Boston, pitching 16 2/3 innings with an impressive 2.70 ERA. The Red Sox are 0-4 in Lester's L4 road starts vs. the Twins, 0-7 in Lester's L7 starts overall, 5-22 their L27 games played vs. RH starters, 3-14 their L17 games played on the road, 7-19 their L26 games played as a favorite, and 9-26 their L35 games played overall. Take Minnesota plus the price at home. Thank you.