5* NFL *BEST BET*

Houston vs. Indianapolis, 12/22/2011 20:20 EDT, Score: 16 - 19

Point Spread: -6½/-107 Houston

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* NFL *BEST BET* on Texans -6.5
Motivated by their first loss in nearly 2 months, expect the Texans to take out their frustration on the lowly Colts tonight.

Indy is playing with momentum for the first time this season and would like to avenge a 34-7 season-opening loss to the Texans, but history isn't on its side. Consider that plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset win by 14 points or more, are 42-17 ATS since 1983. The "play against" team has been valued as an underdog of 6.3 points on average in this situation and has lost by an average of 12.6 points.

In addition, plays against underdogs or pickems that check into a Thursday game with 3 losses in their last 4 games are 24-6 ATS since 1983. The "play against" side has been an underdog of 7.3 points on average in this situation and has lost by an average of 12.6 points.

In addition, the Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC South. We'll lay the points.