4* MLB SMASH

Cincinnati vs. Washington, 04/13/2012 19:05 EDT, Score: 1 - 2

Money Line: -137 Washington

Sportsbook: BETONLINE

Result: Win

4* MLB SMASH on Nationals -137
The Nats have been deadly at home against NL Central foes. They went 17-5 at home against them last season. The Reds certainly haven't had any luck in the nation's capital, going 5-11 in their last 16 meetings there.

I believe Arroyo is on the decline. He struggled last year and was rocked in his first start. The Reds are 3-8 in his last 11 starts vs. the National League East and 1-5 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that the Nationals are 16-6 in their last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Zimmerman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He posted a 3.18 ERA last season and was sharp in his opening start. He gave up just 1 earned in 7 innings of work at Chicago.

The Nationals are 4-1 in Zimmermann's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite and 7-3 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Also, the Nationals are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and a flawless 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Reds are 8-21 in their last 29 games as an underdog and 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. We'll take the Nats.