5* Poinsettia Bowl *BEST BET*

Louisiana Tech vs. TCU, 12/21/2011 20:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 31

Point Spread: +9½/-110 Louisiana Tech

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Win

5* Poinsettia Bowl *BEST BET* on Louisiana Tech +9.5
TCU is being overvalued here because of the reputation it has gained in recent seasons. This, however, is not the same TCU team.
Last year's Horned Frogs were the best defensive team in the country, allowing only 228.5 yards per game. This year's Horned Frogs rank 33rd in total defense with 346.3 yards allowed per contest.
TCU has had issues with the pass this season. It has allowed a 58.2% completion rate and ranks 56th in the country with 220.2 passing yards allowed per game. This is significant because Louisiana Tech, which is a respectable 45th nationally in passing offense with 245.6 yards per game, is 6-0 ATS versus defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or higher this season.
The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.