25* Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Jazz UNDER 214.5
Sacramento vs. Utah,
03/30/2012 21:00 EDT,
Score: 104 - 103
Total: -110/+214½ Under
Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set tonight. I fully expect the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz to combine to finish in the 195-205 point range in this one. This total has been inflated, making it my strongest over/under play in the Western Conference this season.
Season averages alone show that this number has been set too high. Sacramento is scoring 98.3 points/game and giving up 103.8 points/game this season for an average combined score of 202.1 points/game. Utah is scoring 98.8 points/game and giving up 98.7 points/game for an average combined score of 197.5 points/game.
Looking at home/away numbers, and this total has been set even further off the mark. Sacramento is scoring 94.7 points/game and giving up 104.6 points/game on the road for an average combined score of 199.3 points/game. Utah is scoring 101.0 points/game and yielding 94.4 points/game at home for an average combined score of 195.4 points/game.
The Jazz and Kings have combined to score 211 or less points in 11 straight meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set. In their three meetings this season alone, the Jazz and Kings have combined for 189, 199 and 205 points, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.