15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charleston +17
College of Charleston vs. Louisville,
12/20/2011 21:00 EDT,
Score: 62 - 69
Point Spread: +17½/-110 College of Charleston
Charleston should not be catching 17 points against Louisville tonight. Charleston is one of the most underrated programs in the country this season, while Louisville is way overrated after playing one of the softest schedules in the land.
Charleston is 9-1 this season, with their only loss coming UCF as an underdog on a neutral court. This is a team that has some very impressive wins already in 2011. They beat Clemson 72-69 on the road as a 13-point underdog, while also topping UMass 85-61 on a neutral court as a 4-point dog. Charleston topped Tennessee 71-65 as a 2.5-point home favorite as well.
Head coach Bobby Cremins is working with a very talented lineup that features four players averaging in double-figures. F Antwaine Wiggins is an absolute beast, averaging 18.1 points and 7.0 rebounds. Then there's PG Andrew Lawrence (13.7 PPG, 5.1 APG), F Trent Wiederman (12.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and G Anthony Stitt (10.7 points).
Louisville is 10-0 this season. They have played some quality teams at home, but the fact of the matter is that nine of their first 10 games have been at home. Their only road game this season came at Butler, which is a program in rebuilding mode after losing most of their key players from last year's Final Four team. The Cardinals have simply been the beneficiary of a soft schedule.
This play falls into a system that is 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (LOUISVILLE) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, on Tuesday nights.
The Cougars are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 road games. The Cardinals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Charleston is 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games as a road underdog, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 or more. Take Charleston Tuesday.