Jack's Free Pick Tuesday!

Montana State vs. New Mexico, 12/20/2011 21:00 EDT, Score: 46 - 91

Point Spread: +22½/-110 Montana State

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Loss

New Mexico has a quality team this season under head coach Steve Alford. The Lobos are off to an 8-2 start, which includes a 7-2 ATS mark. But because of this fast start, I believe New Mexico is way overvalued tonight.

Montana State is 5-5 this year and they have shown pretty well on the road all season. They beat Utah 70-64 on the road as a 6-point dog, while also upsetting San Jose State away from hom as a 3.5-point dog. The Bobcats nearly beat Arizona State on the road as well, falling 72-78 as a 13.5-point underdog. ASU is a commont opponent for these teams as UNM beat the Sun Devils 76-71.

This play falls into a system that is a very profitable 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against favorites of 20 or more points (NEW MEXICO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.

New Mexico is coming off back-to-back solid wins over two teams from BCS conferences. They beat USC 44-41 before topping Oklahoma State 66-56. This certainly sets the Lobos up for a letdown spot against the Bobcats. Because the Lobos have covered six straight, oddsmakers have over-adjusted tonight. Bet Montana State Tuesday.