4* NIT SMASH

Massachusetts vs. Drexel, 03/20/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 72 - 70

Point Spread: -6/-110 Drexel

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

4* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Drexel -6
After pulling off a pair of road upsets over Mississippi State and Seton Hall, I expect UMass to finally meet its match. Drexel is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 13.2 points.

UMass is solid defensively, holding its foes to 40.8% shooting for the season. However, Drexel is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when matched up against good defensive teams (holding opponents to 42% shooting or worse) after 15-plus games. The Dragons have defeated these teams by an average score of 70.0 to 54.6.

In addition, Drexel is 6-0 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game after 15-plus games. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.4 to 55.4.

It is also worth mentioning that UMass is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Kellogg when checking into a matchup after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Minutemen have lost these contests by an average score of 76.0 to 63.5. We'll lay the points.