15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Howard +28.5

Howard vs. Indiana, 12/19/2011 18:30 EDT, Score: 50 - 107

Point Spread: +28½/-108 Howard

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

This game is strictly a value play and the perfect time to fade the red hot Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is way overvalued due to their 10-0 start, and they simply cannot live up to these expectations. After knocking off top-ranked Kentucky and then Notre Dame in their last two games, the betting public is drooling over the Hoosiers right now.

This is a huge letdown spot for Indiana after playing the Fighting Irish and the Wildcats. While they were emotionally jacked up for both of those games, they cannot possible be jacked up to play Howard tonight. Their lack of focus will have them falling well short of covering this massive number Monday.

Howard may be just 4-8 on the season, but they have played a pretty difficult schedule. All eight of their losses have come by 21 points or less despite playing some tough road games at Georgetown (48-62) and at Oregon State (72-93) within the last two weeks. These tough tests will have Howard more battle-tested when they travel to face Indiana tonight, which will only help them be more competitive.

This play falls into a system that is 54-24 (69.2%) AS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 20 or more points (HOWARD) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 10 or more consecutive wins. The Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Indiana is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after two straight games with 12 or less assists. Roll with Howard Monday.