4* NCAA Tournament SMASH

North Carolina State vs. San Diego State, 03/16/2012 12:40 EDT, Score: 79 - 65

Point Spread: -2½/-110 North Carolina State

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

4* NC State -2.5This is not the same San Diego State squad that won two games in last year's Big Dance and this line certainly reflects that.

NC State is peaking at just the right time. It enters the Dance having won 4 of its last 5 with the lone loss being a 2-point setback to No. 1 seed North Carolina. SDSU struggled against the top teams in the MWC, losing its last 3 against New Mexico (twice) and UNLV and wasn't overly impressive in its non-conference slate. It lost to Baylor by 10 points and lost to Creighton by 2 points and was fortunate to beat USC, Long Beach State and Arizona. NC State played a tougher non-conference schedule and played in a better league - two things that will benefit it in this game.

The fact NC State finished strong bodes well for us because it is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Gottfried when playing away from home following 2 wins in its last 3 games. The Wolfpack have won by an average score of 73.7 to 62.0 in this situation.

It's also worth noting that NC State is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, and they get the call here.