5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year

Texas vs. Cincinnati, 03/16/2012 12:15 EDT, Score: 59 - 65

Point Spread: -2/-110 Cincinnati

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Cincinnati -2
This Cincinnati team, which defeated Mizzou 78-63 in the first round last year, has the ability to go deep in this tournament. It would be a major upset in my mind if this young, inexperienced Texas squad moved on here, and I don't see it happening.

Texas is just 5-10 when playing away from home this season while Cincy is 9-6. The Bearcats also enter the dance playing better basketball with 9 wins in their last 12 games.

The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The fact Texas doesn't force many turnovers weighs heavily in our favor. That's because Cincy is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force