15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Nets UNDER 198.5

Milwaukee vs. New Jersey, 03/12/2012 19:30 EDT, Score: 105 - 99

Total: -105/+198½ Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total. I believe they have set it too high due to recent high-scoring games that the Bucks and Nets have played in. The clear value in this one is with the UNDER, and for a number of reasons.

The biggest reason is the fact that New Jersey is likely to be without their two leading scorers in Deron Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) and Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG). The Nets will struggle to find points without Williams, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury.

New Jersey just combined for 218 points with Houston in their last game, while Milwaukee has combined for 204 or more points in three straight contests. Those efforts were "abnormal" considering these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Nets are only scoring 92.3 points/game at home while the Bucks are putting up just 93.0 points/game on the road.

Milwaukee beat New Jersey 92-85 in their lone meeting this season for 177 combined points on February 19th. That total was set at 195 points, and somehow they have raised this total to 198. Nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen 197 or less combined points as these teams have gone UNDER 198 points 82% of the time during this stretch. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.