NBA FREE PICK: Mavericks/Kings OVER 196.5
Dallas vs. Sacramento,
03/09/2012 22:00 EDT,
Score: 97 - 110
Total: -104/+196½ Over
I expect a very up-tempo pace in this game. The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing 102.6 ppg. Dallas is one of the better defensive teams, giving up just 92 ppg, but this is a tired Mavericks team. This will be their fourth game in five nights. Dallas will need to conserve energy on the defensive end to make sure they can keep up on the offensive side. I understand those tired legs could lead to a lot of missed jump shots, but the Kings defense doesn't really force you to shoot from the outside.
Another reason I really like the OVER in this spot is the fact that these two teams combined for just 159 points in their meeting back in Dallas on Jan. 14. I think that game has the total 4-5 points lower than what it should be. In the previous 5 meetings between these two teams they scored at least 202 points.
It's also worth noting that the OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State, 18-8 in Mavericks last 26 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. Western Conference. BET THE OVER!