3* Saturday NCAAB SMASH

Notre Dame vs. Indiana, 12/17/2011 16:30 EDT, Score: 58 - 69

Point Spread: +9/-103 Notre Dame

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* Saturday NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Notre Dame +9
This is a letdown spot for Indiana following such a big win over Kentucky. Odds makers have overreacted to that win with this line, and I believe we can take advantage in this neutral court battle.

Neutral floors have not treated the Hoosiers well as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

It's hard not to like the Irish catching this many points as they are 61-45 ATS as an underdog under coach Brey. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series.

The fact Indiana is 5-0 ATS in all lined games this season actually bodes well for us considering it is just 4-12 ATS under coach Crean after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

Indiana allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.6% from the floor but was fortunate enough to shoot 60% from 3-point range and have Kentucky turn it over 18 times. The Hoosiers likely won't be able to get the Irish to cough it up near that many times. Notre Dame has had 13 or fewer turnovers in 10 of 11 games this season and 10 or less in 7 of its last 9 contests.

Kentucky only made 2 of 7 3-point shots against Indiana. We can expect the Irish to be good from distance a lot more than that as they average 7 3-point makes per game. We'll take the points as Notre Dame takes care of the ball and hits enough 3's to keep this one close.