15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat OVER 197.5

New Jersey vs. Miami, 03/06/2012 19:30 EDT, Score: 78 - 108

Total: -110/+197½ Over

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Loss

The New Jersey Nets and Miami Heat will take part in a shootout tonight in a game where I foresee 200-plus combined points with ease. New Jersey is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and Miami can light up the scoreboard as well as anyone when they want to.

New Jersey is giving up 99.3 points/game this season on 47.6 percent shooting. They gave up 107 points at Boston and 101 points at Charlotte in their last two games, respectively. You can just imagine what Miami is going to do against their defense tonight if those two offensively-challenged teams put up over 100.

Miami is torching the Nets this year to the tune of 103.1 points/game and 48.4 percent shooting. The Heat are putting up 104.6 points/game on 49.7 percent shooting at home this season. They have scored 102-plus points in eight of their last 11 games overall.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). Miami is 12-3 to the OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.