20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -2

Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo, 03/05/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 53 - 60

Point Spread: -2/-108 Toledo

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The Toledo Rockets should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks in the opening round of the MAC Tournament. They clearly have the better team this year as evident by their 16-15 record compared to the 9-20 mark of the Redhawks.

This is a home game for Toledo, where they have been dominant all season. The Rockets are 10-7 at home while outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. They come into this conference tournament with some momentum after winning five of their final six regular sason games.

Miami (Ohio) is simply overvalued in this spot. The Redhawks are 2-13 on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 59.7 points/game. These teams have already squared off once this season with Toledo winning 63-61 on the road as an 8.5-point favorite. I like their chances of winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.

The Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Toledo is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Miami (Ohio) leading scorer and rebounder Julian Mavunga (16.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG) is questionable with a heel injury. Bet Toledo Monday.