NBA FREE PICK: Dallas Mavericks +6.5
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City,
03/05/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 91 - 95
Point Spread: +6½/-105 Dallas
My money is on the Mavericks to cover this 6.5-point spread against the Thunder on Monday night. Dallas snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-96 win at home over the Jazz. Most importantly they got 40 points from Dirk Nowitzki, who had been struggling of late. The Mavericks showed what they are capable of when Nowitzki gets into a rhythm offensively. Not only do I think Dallas will cover the spread, but I think this game will be extremely close with Dallas having a chance to possibly steal a win in Oklahoma City. That hasn't been easy to do this season. The Thunder are 15-1 at home, but the Mavericks are one of the few teams in the West who match up well with Oklahoma City.
Dallas and Oklahoma City have split their two games so far this season, with both team winning at home. However, the Mavericks defense has really gave the Thunder trouble. Oklahoma City is shooting 47.2% from the field on the year, but Dallas has held them under 41% in both games this season.
Believe it or not, Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Oklahoma City. Dallas is also 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. BET THE MAVERICKS!