5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET*

Miami vs. LA Lakers, 03/04/2012 15:30 EDT, Score: 83 - 93

Point Spread: +3½/-108 LA Lakers

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +3.5
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot.

The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January.

Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.