4* SEC SMASH

Kentucky vs. Florida, 03/04/2012 12:00 EDT, Score: 74 - 59

Point Spread: +5/-110 Florida

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Florida +5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at Kentucky last month, expect Florida to bounce back strong at home, where it is 16-1 on the season.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is fading the Gators in the underdog role. That's because they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Florida.

Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS when matched up against good shooting teams (making >=45% of their shots) this season, and 1-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Also, Florida is 19-8 ATS under coach Donovan after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 78 to 63.7 in this situation. The value clearly lies with Florida. Take the points.