4* BIG 12 ATS ABSOLUTE SMASH
Baylor vs. Iowa State,
03/03/2012 19:00 EDT,
Score: 72 - 80
Point Spread: -1½/-110 Iowa State
I cashed in big on Iowa State -1.5 in my BIG 12 GOTY on Wednesday, and my money stays with the Cyclones on Saturday. Iowa State remains one of the most underrated teams in the country at 21-9 overall and 11-6 in conference play. While the Bears beat Iowa State by 15-points at home, the Cyclones are 15-2 at home this season with big time wins over Texas, Kansas, and Kansas St.
Baylor absolutely murdered Texas Tech 77-48 in their last game at home as a 20-point favorite. That win definitely looks good in the eyes of the public, but the Bears are just 1-9 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1997.
For starters, Iowa State is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) on Saturday games this season. They are also 21-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997 and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. BET THE CYCLONES!