15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State, 03/02/2012 15:35 EDT, Score: 42 - 54

Point Spread: -2½/-105 Northern Iowa

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference that nobody talks about. If there's one team that is going to upset Creighton and/or Wichita State to win this MVC tournament and advance to the Big Dance, it's certainly the Panthers.

I like UNI quite a bit this afternoon as a mere 2.5-point favorite over Illinois State. Northern Iowa is 19-12 on the season and they come into this tournament with some momentum after beating Bradley and Southern Illinois in back-to-back games to end the season.

When you look at the regular season meetings between these teams, it's clear that Northern Iowa is the better squad. UNI beat Illinois State 78-63 at home, but lost to them by a narrow margin of 61-65 on the road. Illinois State only has four wins away from home all season and this one will be played on a neutral court.

Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Illinois State is 0-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. The Redbirds are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. These four trends make for a 30-1 (97%) system backing the Panthers. Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.