5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year

Missouri State vs. Evansville, 03/02/2012 22:00 EDT, Score: 64 - 72

Point Spread: -2/-110 Missouri State

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Loss

5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Missouri State -2
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a pair of losses to Evansville, Missouri State will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor tonight.

I have no doubt the value lies with Missouri State here and history is on our side. The fact Missouri State has endured 6 straight ATS defeats and Evansville has rattled off 4 straight ATS wins bodes extremely well for us. In fact, plays on favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points.

Neither team has played since Feb. 25 but the extra time off figures to be more detrimental to the Purple Aces, who are just 2-10 ATS under coach Simmons when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. They have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

I really believe Missouri State is the better team, and I can't see it losing 3 times to Evansville in the same season. Lay the number.