NCAAB FREE PICK: Virginia -4
Florida State vs. Virginia,
03/01/2012 19:00 EDT,
Score: 63 - 60
Point Spread: -4/-105 Virginia
My money is on Virginia to come away with at least a 5-point win at home over a talented Florida State team. The Cavaliers are an impressive 13-2 at home this season, while Florida State is just 5-7 on the road. The Seminoles have some pretty ugly losses on the road. They lost by 20-points at Clemson, loss to a Boston College team that is 4-11 in ACC, and just lost by 16 at Miami last time out.
What makes this an even strong play is the fact that this is senior night for Virginia, as they get ready to play their last home game of the season. The Cavaliers will be plenty motivated after a heartbreaking 51-54 loss at home to North Carolina in their last game. That loss actually adds even more power to this play, as the Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
Virginia is also 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 13-4 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing