5* Big Ten *BEST BET*

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, 02/28/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 45 - 52

Point Spread: +9½/-109 Minnesota

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

5* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota +9.5
5* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota +9.5
Hungry to end a 5-game slide, and further fueled by a 7-point loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 9, expect Minnesota to give the Badgers a game this evening.

Wisconsin, which has split the last 6 meetings with Minnesota, hasn't defeated the Gophers by more than 9 points since 2008. It is clearly being overvalued here because it is coming off a big win over Ohio State. That win is significant because the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. The Badgers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

The fact Minnesota enters off an embarrassing 19-point loss to Indiana also bodes well for us. Consider that plays on road teams as an underdog or pickem off an embarrassing home loss in which they were held to 60 points or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 75-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 9.2 points on average but have only lost by an average of 7.3. We'll take the points.